While there is still time for a lot to change before the 2024 presidential election campaign season begins, the most recent PBS News-Hour/NPR/Marist survey shows both Democrats and Republicans are actively evaluating potential candidates.
Joseph Biden, the Vice President, and Donald Trump, the 45th President, have each kept a sizable portion of their core voter bases behind them. We should be extremely hesitant of just assuming we know how things are going to play out,” warned Amy Walter, editor of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, because competition could still undermine the precarious certainties of their 2024 presidential campaigns.
“It’s remarkable how wary both candidates are among the party faithful”
Donald Trump sees Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as his main rival. Public Agenda president Andrew Seligsohn said DeSantis is aggressively pursuing policies that aren’t meant to bring the country together around him, but rather the Republican Party.
Seligsohn concluded that thus far, the data suggests he’s actually been successful at positioning himself as that option.
The Democratic Party’s Preferred Presidential Nominee
If Biden were to be nominated by his party for president again in 2024, over half of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic indicated they would vote for him. It is 12 percentage points higher than it was in December when inflation was slowing the economy and midterm election results were still being tallied. Since then, inflation-driven price surges have eased to some extent, and the Republicans’ red wave aspirations to take full control of Congress have shrunk to a tiny edge in the House.
Yet, neither Biden nor the Democrats can relax just yet. In the most recent survey, nearly half of Democrats and similar independents indicated they would support a different candidate for president if not Joe Biden.
It includes Brian Mazzarella of Thomaston, Connecticut. The Democratic candidate, who is 43 years old, stated that while he backs the president’s infrastructure plans, “everything’s reliant on” Vice President Joe Biden. The president is 80 years old, and according to Mazzarella, “it’d be a lot of pandemonium” if something were to happen to him.
Seligsohn remarked that while Biden has won over his party’s faithful, “there’s not really an apparent alternative.” He argued that Biden’s current level of support is “not trivial” in light of the achievements of the Obama administration and the fact that he had already defeated Trump once.
This has Biden’s stamp of approval
Biden’s popularity soared in the days following his State of the Union address. With this rise, the president’s approval rating among the American people is now at a dead heat, with 46% of respondents approving of his work as president thus far and 46% disapproving of Vice President Joe Biden’s performance.
Walter argued that, despite the president’s low popularity ratings, there are positive aspects shaping the public’s opinion of him. Things like the midterms going better for Democrats than predicted, the economy becoming stronger, his State of the Union address getting good press, and a potential showdown between two Republican frontrunners for the presidency are all favorable developments.
These current data show a dramatic improvement in Biden’s favorability ratings compared to those he has witnessed during his presidency. However, Seligsohn cautioned that the long-term viability of such progress is yet to be determined.
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